The Next 100 Years by George Friedman

The Big Idea: U.S.A will dominate the next hundred years, first by controlling the oceans, then by controlling space.

  • Geographic isolation gives the U.S. military advantages few nations can claim, which translates to economic and political dominance.
  • Russia will challenge American dominance but will suffer from internal problems, declining population, and poor infrastructure.
  • China will not challenge American dominance because it is too geographically isolated, is too economically stratified, inefficient, and corrupt.
  • Japan, Turkey, and Poland will emerge as strong challengers for world dominance.
  • Population growth will slow and then stabilize.
  • Advanced industrial countries will suffer from aging and declining populations and will rely on immigration to support their economies.
  • Solar power will replace fossil fuels.  The nation that controls space controls energy.
  • By the late 21st century, Mexico will emerge as a world power, due to its favorable demographics, strong economy and geographic advantages.
  • The Muslim world will remain too internally divided to form a unified Caliphate and the U.S.-jihadist era will fade away.


Leave a Reply